Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Kevin journaling

 

12/1/2020

Here's an exercise.


I'd like to see the gold price every 10 years.

Like - 1970 $20.  1980 $35. 1990 $400

Because I think it'd surprise you - and give you your answer over a longer timeline.  I'm gold heavy now.  And yeah you can get swept up in gold fever just like people who only wanted BTC at the top.

But understand what the assets are and why you hold them.  And accumulate in depressed cycles and sell into manias but keep it sound.

And also put plenty of the rest of your money into other shit that's going to have good returns and yields and all that.

I'm in gold stocks now to try to grow money quickly and ride huge uptrend while also compounding growing revenues and dividends - the Jim Rogers asymmetric trades that are more macro cyclical.  I'll hold physical for life in different forms for different reasons, and so on.

Look at this one - 30 year commodities trend.  They've still never been cheaper.

This year's dip was lowest point.  Now trend is actually reversing

Platinum 13 year low.  Oil 30 year low.

Gold/S&P ratio all time low.  Gold/silver ratios near widest ever.  It's all there.  "You're in the shade right now because 30 years ago someone planted a tree.". Everybody wants in when it's good but nobody wants to actually plan 10+ years out and work backwards.

Whatever works.  When money has interest rates again you don't want to be in gold.  To your point about the Fed... They're terrified of interest rates and defaults.  So own gold.  That's why I'm so damn stubborn.  It's Hotel California.


Monday, July 27, 2015

Peruvian Pensamientos

As a backpacker, one frequently finds himself in uncanny situations  never foreseen.  The power of yes lends itself to amazing adventures while eering on the side of caution rarely rouses one from their comfort zone.  However, what may appear routine, when adding the magic ingredient of foreign culture to the brew, may quickly transform into something quite blog-worthy indeed.

It has been suggested more than once, that a movie be produced or a book written about my life and the ridiculous situations I get into.  I take these experiences for granted and write them off as either a product of my disorganization or rather a product of simply the random chances life throws at you.  Another day in the life of a traveler/backpacker, may be an extraordinarily novel encounter for the hobbit never leaving the shire.

Once such event happened recently when taking what should have a been an ordinary collectivo/taxi ride between the towns of Santa Teresa and Santa Maria, in the sacred valley region of Southern Peru (near Machu Picchu).  I began relaying the story to my girlfriend and she immediately interrupted me with, "See! Movie material!". I disagreed. This could happen to anyone anywhere in the world on any given day.  Apparently, toying with death in a "routine" taxi ride is not so "routine" for most people.

While buying snacks at a local store, I said, "excuse me" to yet another random foreigner thinking it was just another tourist similar to myself, but most tourists in this town travel with tour groups. As I walked by, I heard, "Hey!" and I turned to see the faces of a mother and daughter I'd hiked around Machu Picchu with the previous day.  I guess they were unable to get out the day prior and were conducting their travels this day.  How odd? 

Upon further discussion we realized we were heading in the same direction and they invited me to jump in the SUV with them.  To this I agreed and we slogged further down the road until the cab driver handed us off to another driver.  After quite a big of haggling, we managed to get the price straight and finally, to comply with his nagging, transferred into the vehicle of the other man.

This man was likely in his 40's, wearing an old gray t-shirt with holes in it, overweight, and clearly not in the mood for conversation.  I later found out he lived in Santa Teresa (where we were departing from) and had a family with children.  So why this man decided to risk the lives of not only himself, but also the two mother daughter pairs including one very young girl around 9 years old, is a question I've not been able to answer.

As we entered the vehicle to silence the driver, the first thing I noticed, as I was in the front seat, is there were no seat belts in the car anywhere.  They'd been cut out.  Now this is quite common for vehicles around the world, but it's usually relegated to specifically the back seats.  On a small country road this ordinarily would be no problem.  However, this was no ordinary road. 

The province of La Convencion contains rugged, though lush, steep mountain terrain and Santa Teresa is no exception.  Land slides in this region have caused major trouble for local villages in the past.  Specifically the road from Santa Teresa to Santa Maria runs parallel to a river cutting its way through a valley, fueled by cascades from the mountain peaks.  The road has been carved into the mountain side and has steep and sometimes dead vertical drop offs on the riverside.  None of it is paved and there is scarcely a guardrail or any signs indicating orientation or danger.  To compound the problem, many places in the road run directly through intense streams flowing from the mountain slopes.  Essentially, the driver must pull as far to the left side of the road as possible and drive quickly to avoid the possibility of his vehicle floating right off the other side of the road.

On our journey back to Cusco that day, we saw remanants of three recent wrecks and were privy to tales of more thanks to our final driver.  Drivers typically didn't survive these encounters with the river as a 50 to 150 foot fall awaited their misjudgement of the road's direction.  Often, lack of sleep or alcohol were involved, but not always.  We saw a family car with four people outside of it on its side further down the cliff.  It had happened shortly before we and the police had arrived.  Everyone seemed to be alright though somehow. Or, judging by the police's lack of urgency, those injured had already been carted off.

So despite all the obvious dangers, there were no seat belts in the car and the driver seemed to be a former Formula One Racer when during every turn, right at the apex, I was sure his tires would spin out and we'd go careening off the side of the road to meet a watery fate.  Ordinarily, this wouldn't bother me so much due to my many encounters with batty drivers in third-world countries around the globe.  I began to notice however, when one of the girls in the back seat repeatedly asked the driver to slow stating, "Por favor senor, no tenemos prisa!".  "We are not in a hurry" in English.  Her response was echoed by the mother of the small girl agreeing that the road was very dangerous.  Four times this happened and each time, the driver's response was to flippantly increase the volume on his radio, continually taking his eyes off the road to compound our dilemna.  

There's not a whole lot you can do in situations like this but either get out or pray you don't die.  I chose the latter though my tolerance was really pressed during one of the instances when we spotted a former crash site.  We noticed another vehicle parked on the side of the road with the driver standing outside the vehicle pantoming to us.  As it turns out, this was one of our driver's friends and he simply wanted to show our driver the vehicle that had lost its grip on surety and tumbled into the river below.  

Ok so, I get it.  You want to long-neck, but when I see your friend with a giant boulder in his hand and realize that's your version of an "e-brake", we have a small problem.   Especially when the vehicle is facing downhill directly toward an imposing cliff and there are still five passengers in it.  

He gets out of the vehilce and immediately I hear an "ummmm" from the back seat.  I reach over without delay and jerk the e-brake as hard as I can and guess what?  Of course, it doesn't work.  It comes all the way up with zero resistance.  I wasn't letting this car relenquish us of our ability to control the situation so I quickly climbed over the shifter and placed my foot heavily on the brake in the floor.  All passengers thanked me for my "good idea" and while you might think the driver would at least make mention of the fact that I'm in his seat with my foot on the brake when he returned, in reality he looked at me with complete indifference, climbed in, and continued the death race.  When asked (by me) if he was annoyed, he responded negatively.  I couldn't decide if it was better to distract him to slow him down or if that would merely take his eyes off the road- our one connection to safety.  I suredly decided mum was the word.

We did eventually make it to our next pick up, though there were a few times I doubted.  Especially when we saw a beer truck that had fallen off the road and while no one was taking the  beer, they were systematically pulling the truck out of the valley piece by piece.

For every story like this, I've five more, but one gets so caught up in just trying to get from place to place in one piece, that they are often written off as just part of the journey of life.  While I may be dismissive at times about the thrills and dangers we face navigating this world. I a am grateful to be a part of it and wouldn't trade my experiences for any level of comfort and security.  Bring on the ludicrousy.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Quick update

So for the last 5 months, I've been in Taiwan exploring and the like.  I've been dating a Taiwanese gal named Daisy for the lot of it as well.  Nearly all this time has been spent in Kaohsiung which is a major coastal city in Southwestern Taiwan.  At 2 million people in a relatively small area, Kaohsiung, like Taipei, is one of the most densely populated cities in the world.  And with all that population and the endless amount of scooters and cars on the road, comes the smog.  It’s not the worst I’ve seen but there is certainly a noticeable haze hanging in the air.

Taiwan is about 70% mountains which is almost completely uninhabited, no doubt due to Taiwanese culture and fear-mongering about the danger of the mountains and waters.  Many people die every year in these natural environments due to not only natural disasters such as floods and landslides, but also due to lack of education on outdoor safety.  So everyone crowds into the coastal areas.  The West Coast is mostly industrialized or “industrial wasteland” as one of my friends described it, but the East coast couldn’t be different. With Hualien, Taitung, Long Dong (Dragon’s Cave), Toroko Gorge, and Beitou, the East is a real gem.  I’ve been many places in this world and seem some incredible sights, but Eastern Taiwan is right up there with the best of them. 

To give you an idea of what I’m talking about, some gentleman made a fantastic aerial video of Taitung in all its splendor.  You can find it here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151737279601101&l=b149dffbbb  I don’t own the rights to this video and it was merely shared by a friend via facebook.

I’ve done whatever I’m able to get by financially but it’s tough at times.  This being the first time I’ve had to market myself now that I’m post-military, it’s certainly a learning experience.  Welcome to being an adult I suppose.  I have plans for the future but it’s not quite time to reveal them yet so until then, enjoy the blog posts.

            

Rock Climbing and exploring Cijin Island, Kaohsiung, Taiwan Dec 2013

This past weekend a couple of visiting couchsurfers, Daisy, and I all decided to take a trip out to Cijin Island here in Kaohsiung for a little bit of exploration and climbing.  Being their first time in KS, I decided to give them a tour of the island since I knew this might be their only chance.  So we began our journey by hiking through the market and all its various vendors up the trail to the lighthouse.

Now the lighthouse is probably one of the most easily accessible areas on the island with a great view, but never being satisfied without being at the highest point in a general location, I decided I wanted to get on top of the lighthouse.  Well the staircase was blocked by a locked door, so what would any climber do?  Buildering.  Buildering is essentially just the sport of climbing buildings.  So that’s exactly what I did.  I found a way to make it to the highest point on the lighthouse and snapped some photos.  I wasn’t the only one snapping photos though.  Quite a crowd gathered around and being in Asia, as you can imagine there were cameras everywhere.  Who knows who’s photo albums or wanted posters I’m going to show up on.  One day I’ll be browsing the internet and find a picture of myself.  Anyway, that was all well and good.  The crowd offered a few oohs and ahs and gasps when they thought I would slip.  Our friends joked I should put a hat out and start taking donations instead of offering a free show.  Not a bad idea actually.

After the lighthouse we ventured further up the mountain to the old military Cihou Fort used in a failed attempt to fend off the Japanese back in the late 1930s.  There were machine gun bunkers and tunnels all over the place and we paid a visit to many of them.  Pretty neat to see something that played such a monumental role in the history of this country right here in Kaohsiung.

Finally, after a concerned call from Daisy who was waiting for us at the climbing area, we found our way back down the mountain and through the tunnel to meet up with her.  We didn’t waste any time though.  High above the tunnel, there was a trail leading to a cave in the mountainside that Daisy and I had always wanted to explore.  We managed to climb up on the tunnel, the four of us, and slowly and carefully make our way up the treacherous trail secured by a rope most likely attached there by local caving groups.  This once again generated a crowd, this time about 50 people thick.  One really can’t do much of anything out of the ordinary without gathering spectators here. 

Once in the cave, we ventured forward until we noticed it dropped about 25 feet into the earth.  After much debate and armed with headlamps, everyone volunteered me to be the first and only one to take the plunge.  There were many old broken rope ladders securing the decent so I grabbed as many as I could while chimneying down the crack.  It was incredibly eerie and a bit scary.  I found my way forward another 15 feet very slowly watching each of my steps and all that echoed in my head were the words of a caving guide I’d had the pleasure of meeting in Texas who told me people who go into caves when they are untrained end up not only ruining the caves, but getting hurt or lost thereby preventing any further exploration by true cavers.  So when I saw that to continue forward further, I’d have to shimmy down a 2x2 hole even further into the ground, I called it off and turned back.  With no ropes, gear, or trained guides, this was not a risk I was willing to take.  So a bit of he-man pullups and encouragement from the others and I was back out of there.  We made our way back down the trail one-by-one trying to avoid rockslides and each of us safely made it back down to ground level to the new crowd’s amazement.


After this we immediately hopped over the adjacent railing and began climbing down the rock face to the climbing area on the beach.  This gathered a few “Jaiyo” from the crowd as well.  This basically is an encouraging chant meaning similar to “yeah!” or “do it!”  So anyway we climbed down and after a quick tour to the CSers we walked over to the climbing area and began setting up all the gear.  As they were setting up the gear, I walked around the check out what was around the wall.  I did a bit of climbing and emptied my pockets including my wallet and set them down on a nearby rock.  Unfortunately I forgot about them and ended up leaving them on the rock for a while.  When I came back to join my friends, it seemed a large group of Philippino guys had decided to join us on the beach which was odd because almost no one ever ventures off the bridge.  They took pictures with me and meandered around for a bit.  I didn’t think much of it until later I walked back around my wallet sitting there.  I opened it up and realized all of my cash was gone.  About $65 USD worth.  Those bastards!  Whatever though.  My fault for leaving my stuff sitting around.

Anyway, so for the rest of the day we set up a few different climbs in various places on the wall using slings and a couple of bolts for protection.  We sport climbed and bouldered until dark and at the end of the day, we were all pumped from the overhanging limestone.  All in all it was a great time.  We finished the day with a treat and Daisy’s friend’s café called Seattlite on the island then parted ways until the next time we meet.  Twas a great day.





Kayaking in Coron, Philippines Nov 2013

A few days into our Coron (Busuanga Island) trip, the typhoon had already knocked out everything so most tourist functions were down.  So Daisy and I, not wanting to burn another, took advantage of the chaos and decided to kayak away from it all for a day.  Around noon we rented a double sea kayak and pointed the tip for Coron Island.  I’d seen many pictures of what appeared to be fabulous rock for deep water soloing and even read a couple of blogs about it so I packed my shoes and was stoked for the prospect of reliving the Tonsai, Thailand experience.   This was also Daisy’s first sea kayaking experience so I was excited albeit a bit nervous to see her delight in the pleasure of the experience.  Surprisingly, she’s actually a kayaking natural.  It didn’t take her long to pick up the technique and did really well.  45 minutes and lots of rowing chants later, we got a close-up view of the famed rock formations.  We paddled right up next to one of the cliff faces for closer inspection and I quickly realized this wasn’t your typical limestone famed for tufas and pockets making great Deep Water Soloing.  This was coral rock similar to Okinawa, Japan.  The rock was incredibly sharp and pointy and to make matters worse, most of rock jutted out just enough that if you were to fall, you would still land on it underwater.  It had merely been cut away by years of waves thrashing about but the underwater rock still stood.  This complicated matters.  No worries though, there was still lots of exploring to do and we were having a great time.

Daisy says "Oooooh! What's that yellow thing?" I said
"That would be my mango."

A little bit of Deep Water Soloing





















At the first stop, we carefully dodged all of the giant black sea urchins that plagued the waters as we stepped out of the kayak for a swim and preview of whatever underwater delights may exist there.  We also took the moment to enjoy some fresh mango we’d brought along.  Hm, afterthought, last time I visited an island by kayak for deep water soloing was in Thailand and my kayaking buds and I brought mango along for that trip too.  Anyway, we swam about for a bit then jumped back into the kayak to explore this particular cove we’d stumbled into.  I was on the lookout for DWS and Daisy was just enjoying the ride.  We honestly were having a blast.  We later found out we had discovered ………  lake.  We found there appeared to be some buildings on the shoreline and so we paddled further inland to investigate.  Here we found the entrance for the thermal lake.  After trying to mitigate Daisy’s parking technique of slamming into the shoreline not knowing how to brake, we pulled the kayak alongside the shoreline and hiked over the mountainside to discover a pier bidding entrance to the lake.  There happened to be a few people we had already met in Coron town on Busuanga island who were on an island hopping tour.  They were swimming and jumping off a rock so for a bit we joined them until I decided I wanted to climb higher to get a real DWS experience.  As I climbed higher and higher, I once again got a “no sir, it’s too dangerous” from the local island hopping guide.  I told him, “I know, but this is why I came to the Philippines.”  I guess he didn’t want to be liable for me so he turned around and swam out of the water as quickly as he could while calling the rest of his patrons to join him.  I was perhaps 30 feet off the ground at this point and most everyone had left the lake except Daisy and I.  I finally admitted this was too dangerous and held disastrous consequences if I were hurt and thus, I climbed back down to the normal launching spot and finished my climb with a victorious cannon ball splash into the lake below.

Sunset on the return trip
We swam about a bit longer and hiked back over the mountain to leave the lake as it was beginning to get late in the day.  After haggling with some locals about paying an entrance fee (we’d been misinformed about the price of the entrance fee.  This went something like him: “400 sir” us: “we don’t have 400, only 200” him: “yes sir, 400” rinse and repeat) we turned out to sea and headed back.  We timed it perfectly as the sun just started sinking low in the sky as we were about halfway through the journey back to Busuanga.  We became spectators to one of the prettiest sunsets I’ve ever seen and I was eternally grateful yet again for all of the wonderful things I’ve seen and done over the years.  We parked the kayak back at the resort and reveled in our job retelling one another our experiences from the day and laughed the night away.



Entrance to the lake















South Cross Island HIghway Part III Dec 2013

Next morning we stuffed our tent in the bag and departed once again.  Daisy had to work later that afternoon but we had a bit of time to explore so I took us up a couple of random roads in the village.  What a treat this turned out to be.  As we drifted through these backcountry orchard roads, I couldn’t help but stop every few meters to snap some photos and take in the some of the most incredible colors I’d ever seen.  Some of these folks lived a very simple life in an amazing location.  Cruising along these mountain roads peering over the river and village in the valley below, I realized how easy it is to forget places like this exist in Taiwan when living in a place like smogville Kaohsiung. 

On our way back up the mountain, we spotted a waterfall off in the distance.  I couldn’t resist.  I pulled over and told Daisy if we hurried, we could trace the riverbed up to it and still make it back for her work in time.  So she reluctantly agreed and I took off.  I estimated it to take us about 30 minutes, but I was essentially running up the riverbed and cut that in half.  Parkour-style river tracing over big boulders- one of my favorite pastimes. 

Finally arrived at the falls huffing and puffing but it was worth it for me.  Though the water flow had slowed significantly due to the changing seasons, there was still a pool at the bottom of the cascade filled with thousands of tadpoles and algae though it was.  Once again, the colors and contrast of old and new algae was positively stunning.  A bit later Daisy made it up to the crag and had had her fill.  After a brief pause, she stepped off back down the riverbed while I continued up the mountain around the waterfall over some serious rock scree.  I essentially ran up the mountain sliding the whole way.  Nature was definitely working against me in this case.  It was like trying to run uphill through a pile of marbles.  Almost nothing was solid but I set a goal for myself and after another 15 minutes or so, I made it halfway up the mountainside.  Unfortunately the view was muggled by several patches of trees but it was worth the effort.  I’d only made it about halfway and the trail only got ever-steeper and ever-more dangerous from there.  Fearing a serious landslide that would almost certainly bring injury or death, I calculated the risk to be too high and not worth it so I did an about-face and began slidin down the mountainside Bear Grylls style, continually cycling my feet in front so as not to lose balance.  Every now and then the boulders I was sliding on would give out and tumble back down the trail so I’d have to lie back and wait for the maelstrom to calm before it took me with it.  Imagine trying to skate down a sand dune and you've just about got it.


After making it back to Daisy in one piece, we high-tailed it back to Kaohsiung.  Not without one final pleasure though.  Daisy’s friend owned a farm along the way and she’d done a bit of work with him so she gave me a little tour of the squash and bean plots.  Once again in an amazing location.  With storm clouds rolling in and our time running short though, we didn’t stay for long.  We gassed up and started the four-hour journey back to KS.  The slow transition from open roads and clean air back to traffic jams and smoggy skies made me reluctant to complete the journey but hey, that’s life.  Until the next trip, I hope you are enjoying the Myriad wanderings.